Current scenarios at a glimpse

 

The HBF scenario

The first scenario takes its name from the Heinrich Böll Foundation, which has commissioned the study.

 

• Reduce space heating demand by 80% compared with 2008 levels

• 16.6% of the heat demand is covered by district heating

• Individual heating infrastructure: heat pumps, micro CHP, thermal storage and solar thermal

• Transport energy needs are supplied by:

• 30% electricity (Electric vehicles)

• 10% hydrogen (Fuel cell vehicles)

• 60% fossil fuels (petrol, diesel, Jet Fuel)

• Electricity storage

• Power-to-gas technologies (electrolysers)

• Flexible electricity demand

 

The FH scenario

The second scenario is based on study conducted by Fraunhofer Gesellschaft.

 

• Reduce space heating demand by 60% compared with 2010 levels

• 25% of the heat demand is covered by district heating, equipped with heat pumps, thermal storage and solar thermal

• Individual heating infrastructure: air-source, ground-source and natural gas-driven heat pumps, solar thermal and thermal storage

• Transport energy needs are supplied by:

• 30% electricity (Electric vehicles)

• 30% hydrogen (Fuel cell vehicles)

• 40% fossil fuels (petrol, diesel, Jet Fuel)

• Electricity storage

• Power-to-gas technologies (Electrolysers)

 

The UBA scenario

The third scenario is based on the study conducted by the German Federal Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt).

 

• Power-to-gas technologies utilise renewable and imported electricity to  convert hydrogen and CO2 into renewable methane

• Reduce space heating demand by 70% compared with 2010 levels

• 16.6% of the heat demand is covered by district heating, equipped with heat pumps and thermal storage

• Individual heating infrastructure: heat pumps, natural gas boilers, thermal storage and solar thermal

• Transport energy needs are supplied by:

• 40% electricity (Electric vehicles in vehicle-to-grid mode)

• 60% synthetic fuels (Gas-to-liquid technologies)

• Electricity storage

• Power-to-gas technologies (electrolysers)

• Threefold electricity exchange capacities compared with the other two scenarios